Measure-theoretic probability
Warm-upHumanLet be random variables on one probability space. Which implications hold in general? Select all that apply.
Let be random variables on one probability space. Which implications hold in general? Select all that apply.
Let be independent fair dice (values ). The conditional expectation is a random variable. What value does it take on the event ?
Let be events with . Nothing is assumed about independence. Which statement is true?
The proof of the second Borel–Cantelli lemma runs: (1) the complement of is ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) continuity from above. Which step uses the independence of the events?
On with Lebesgue measure let and let be the σ-algebra generated by and . What is ?
In Mathlib, Martingale M 𝓕 μ means: M is adapted and μ[M j | 𝓕 i] =ᵐ[μ] M i whenever i ≤ j. Which Lean statement correctly expresses a martingale has constant expectation (with [IsFiniteMeasure μ] and hM : Martingale M 𝓕 μ, hij : i ≤ j)?
Let be independent fair signs, , and . Compute using the expansion from the proof of the strong law.
A simple symmetric random walk starts at and stops at the first time it reaches or . Using optional stopping for the martingales and , compute .
Let be independent with and . Then is a non-negative martingale with , and almost surely. Why does this not contradict ?
A finite probability space has outcomes with probabilities probs, a random variable given by the list X, and a σ-algebra generated by a partition blocks (a list of lists of outcomes). Write conditional_expectation(probs, X, blocks) returning the list whose -th entry is . Assume every block has positive probability. Use Fraction so the answers are exact.