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The Lumenary

Practice · First-year graduate

Measure-theoretic probability

Measure-theoretic probability

Warm-upHuman

Let X,X1,X2,…X, X_1, X_2, \dots be random variables on one probability space. Which implications hold in general? Select all that apply.

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Measure-theoretic probability

Warm-upHuman

Let X1,X2X_1, X_2 be independent fair dice (values 1,…,61, \dots, 6). The conditional expectation E[X1X2∣X1]\mathbb E[X_1 X_2 \mid X_1] is a random variable. What value does it take on the event {X1=4}\{X_1 = 4\}?

Measure-theoretic probability

CoreHuman

Let A1,A2,…A_1, A_2, \dots be events with P(An)=1/n2P(A_n) = 1/n^2. Nothing is assumed about independence. Which statement is true?

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Measure-theoretic probability

CoreHuman

The proof of the second Borel–Cantelli lemma runs: (1) the complement of lim sup⁡Ak\limsup A_k is ⋃n⋂k≥nAkc\bigcup_n \bigcap_{k \ge n} A_k^c; (2) P(⋂k=nNAkc)=∏k=nN(1−P(Ak))P(\bigcap_{k=n}^N A_k^c) = \prod_{k=n}^N (1 - P(A_k)); (3) 1−x≤e−x1 - x \le e^{-x}; (4) continuity from above. Which step uses the independence of the events?

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Measure-theoretic probability

CoreHuman

On Ω=[0,1)\Omega = [0, 1) with Lebesgue measure let X(ω)=ωX(\omega) = \omega and let G\mathcal G be the σ-algebra generated by B1=[0,12)B_1 = [0, \tfrac12) and B2=[12,1)B_2 = [\tfrac12, 1). What is E[X∣G]\mathbb E[X \mid \mathcal G]?

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Measure-theoretic probability

CoreFormal

In Mathlib, Martingale M 𝓕 μ means: M is adapted and μ[M j | 𝓕 i] =ᵐ[μ] M i whenever i ≤ j. Which Lean statement correctly expresses a martingale has constant expectation (with [IsFiniteMeasure μ] and hM : Martingale M 𝓕 μ, hij : i ≤ j)?

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Measure-theoretic probability

CoreHuman

Let X1,…,X4X_1, \dots, X_4 be independent fair signs, P(Xi=1)=P(Xi=−1)=12P(X_i = 1) = P(X_i = -1) = \tfrac12, and S4=X1+X2+X3+X4S_4 = X_1 + X_2 + X_3 + X_4. Compute E[S44]\mathbb E[S_4^4] using the expansion from the proof of the strong law.

Measure-theoretic probability

StretchHuman

A simple symmetric random walk starts at 33 and stops at the first time TT it reaches 00 or 1010. Using optional stopping for the martingales SnS_n and Sn2−nS_n^2 - n, compute ET\mathbb E T.

Measure-theoretic probability

StretchHuman

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1, \xi_2, \dots be independent with P(ξi=0)=P(ξi=2)=12P(\xi_i = 0) = P(\xi_i = 2) = \tfrac12 and Mn=ξ1⋯ξnM_n = \xi_1 \cdots \xi_n. Then (Mn)(M_n) is a non-negative martingale with EMn=1\mathbb E M_n = 1, and Mn→0M_n \to 0 almost surely. Why does this not contradict EM∞=lim⁡EMn\mathbb E M_\infty = \lim \mathbb E M_n?

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Measure-theoretic probability

CoreComputational

A finite probability space has outcomes 0,1,…,n−10, 1, \dots, n-1 with probabilities probs, a random variable given by the list X, and a σ-algebra G\mathcal G generated by a partition blocks (a list of lists of outcomes). Write conditional_expectation(probs, X, blocks) returning the list whose ω\omega-th entry is E[X∣G](ω)\mathbb E[X \mid \mathcal G](\omega). Assume every block has positive probability. Use Fraction so the answers are exact.

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